According to the source, the key trading focus is whether BTC will finish October with a green monthly close, as highlighted in a post on X dated Oct 28, 2025, source: source post on X, Oct 28, 2025. A green month means the October close settles above the October open, the standard definition used in candlestick analysis, source: Investopedia, Candlestick and OHLC definitions. Into month-end, traders monitor the October monthly open as a pivot, spot-futures basis, perpetual funding, and open interest to gauge momentum and squeeze risk, source: CME Group Bitcoin futures product guide; Kaiko market structure research. Dealer positioning and options expiry on the last Friday of the month at 08:00 UTC can also sway late-month price action, source: Deribit Knowledge Base, expiration schedule. While the Uptober narrative reflects that October has been positive in a majority of years since 2013, seasonality alone is not a signal and should be combined with trend confirmation, source: CoinGlass Bitcoin monthly returns dashboard; U.S. SEC Investor Bulletin.

According to @BullTheoryio, BTC has closed green in October in 10 of the past 12 years for an 83% win rate, with the only October declines being 2014 at -12.95% and 2018 at -3.83% (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the average October return is +20.62% and the median is +14.71%, making October one of BTC’s strongest historical months for trend-following setups (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, every time September closed green since 2013 (2015, 2016, 2023, 2024), October also finished green, and September 2025 closed +5.16% with October 2025 currently up +5.41% intramonth (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, in those same years November also turned green with returns of +19.27% in 2015, +5.42% in 2016, +8.81% in 2023, and +37.29% in 2024, indicating a green September–October–November streak pattern (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, if October repeats its average or median gain from a 119,000 USD base, BTC implies targets near 143,539 USD or 136,495 USD respectively, framing a data-driven Uptober scenario for traders to monitor (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to the source, Uptober refers to BTC’s historically strong October, but CoinGlass’s monthly return heatmap shows October is often positive yet not uniformly so, and losses can still occur. Source: https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinMonthlyReturn For trade timing, map October macro catalysts that impact USD liquidity and risk appetite, notably the U.S. CPI release and any Federal Reserve communications; use the BLS CPI schedule and the Fed FOMC calendar to plan exposure. Sources: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm Track spot BTC ETF net flows and AUM to gauge incremental demand, as daily creations and redemptions can influence intraday direction and closing imbalances. Source: https://farside.co.uk/crypto/research/bitcoin-etf-flows/ Monitor perpetual funding rates, futures basis, and open interest to avoid crowded positioning around catalysts; dashboards for funding and OI are available. Sources: https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate and https://www.coinglass.com/OpenInterest Liquidity risk can rise on thinner order books during off-hours, increasing wick risk; market depth analyses highlight variance by venue and time. Source: https://kaiko.com/research